Humans confirmed the creation of other galaxies surprisingly late . Only 100 years ago , in fact , when Edwin Hubble line up a type of star lie with as Cepheid variable within Andromeda , and used them to valuate the galaxy ’s distance .

Since then , uranology equipment and proficiency have advance , and more and more data has been amass on Andromeda and many of the estimated2 trillion galaxieswithin the observable universe . As luck ( or , to be more precise , distance would have it , given that Andromeda is one of ourclosest neighbor ) we before long happen evidence that the first galaxy we discovered beyond our own was potential on a collision class with the Milky Way .

" jaunt at 250,000 miles per hour [ 402,336 kilometers per hour ] , the neighboring gargantuan coil is schedule to make a heading - on clash with our galaxy about 4 billion years from now,“NASA explain . " Subsequent friction over 2 billion years will give ascent to a commingle oviform extragalactic nebula , replete with sensation scattered in raw orbits . It seems Earth , the Sun and planet in our Solar System will survive the clank but take on new coordinates in the cosmos . "

But observations of Andromeda andour own galaxyare uninterrupted , and as we get salutary selective information we can get a better printing of when this hit will take place , if it will bump at all .

In a novel field of study , which has not yet been peer - reviewed , one squad looked at the latest and most accurate observations conduct by the Gaia and Hubble space telescope , as well as more recent assessments of the mass of the galaxies within the Local Group .

The squad attempted to distinguish the areas of doubt in the organic evolution of the Local Group ofgalaxiesand how it will develop over the next 10 billion eld .

" Predicting next merger requires knowledge about the present co-ordinate , velocity , and masses of the organization partaking in the interaction , " the squad explain in their newspaper . " In addition to the gravitational force between galaxies , dynamic friction is the predominant appendage in the tether - up to galactic unification . It distinguish a transfer of orbital kinetic energy to internal vitality of the objects involved , and accordingly leads to the decomposition of galactic orbits . "

Though these forces all run a part in the final stages of a merger , sobriety is what plays the largest role in influence whether galaxies collide . The team reckon for areas of precariousness which could affect the organic evolution of the group , find that uncertainness around Andromeda ( M31 ) andMessier 33significantly alter the chance of a merger between Andromeda and the Milky Way .

" While including M33 increase the uniting probability , the orbital cavity of the Large Magellanic Cloud runs perpendicular to the Milky Way - Andromeda reach and make their merger less likely , " the squad explained . " In the full system , we find that uncertainties in the present positions , motions , and masses of all galaxies lead way for drastically different consequence , and a probability of airless to 50 percent that there is no Milky Way - Andromeda merger during the next 10 billion years . "

The team are , of grade , conservative about their findings , and say that more reflexion are needed to determine whether Andromeda will collide with our galaxy . But " as it stands , proclamations of the at hand death of our Galaxy appear greatly exaggerated . "

The study is post to preprint serverarXiv .