Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

This map shows the places in the world where the next venomous virus will probably start its disastrous sweep across the ball . reddish domain are plague “ hot spots , ” and green areas are region where epidemic are least likely to break out . An external team of scientists came up with the function after years of thoroughgoing research into virus patterns . Researchers get wind that disease disasters have quadruple over the retiring 50 years , and they have evidence show which groups are most likely to open a virulent disease .

Wild animals are the most likely bearers of the next plague — 60 % of epidemics are from “ zoonotic disease , ” disease that jump-start from creature to homo living in close proximity . The more that human populations go around into previously - uninhabited orbit , the more likely we are to rub up against some viruses that the local animal are resistant to , while we are not .

agree to the Earth Institute at Columbia University :

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In the new study , researchers from four mental institution analyzed 335 emerging diseases from 1940 to 2004 , then converted the results into maps correlated with human universe density , population change , latitude , rainfall and wildlife biodiversity . They usher that disease emergences have roughly quadrupled over the retiring 50 years . Some 60 % of the diseases traveled from animals to humans ( such disease are called zoonoses ) and the legal age of those came from wild creatures . With data corrected for lesser surveillance done in misfortunate countries , “ hot spot ” jump out in areas cross sub - Saharan Africa , India and China ; pocket-size spots seem in Europe , and North and South America .

“ We are crowding wildlife into ever - small areas , and human universe is increasing , ” said joint author Marc Levy , a global - change expert at the Center for International Earth Science Information internet ( CIESIN ) , an affiliate of Columbia University ’s Earth Institute . “ The meeting of these two things is a recipe for something crossbreed over . ” The main source are mammals . Some pathogen may be picked up by hunt or accidental contact ; others , such as Malaysia ’s Nipah computer virus , go from wildlife to farm animal , then to people . man have evolved no immunity to zoonotic disease , so the diseases can be extraordinarily lethal .

Image via Nature .

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